亨通光电（600487）:定增获大股东领投+产业资本青(3)

亨通光电（600487）:定增获大股东领投+产业资本青睐，海洋通信+硅光模块将迎重大机遇

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财务预测摘要

资产负债表(百万元) 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 利润表(百万元) 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 货币资金5,054.23 7,170.64 4,279.59 7,784.03 7,116.80 营业收入33,865.76 31,760.02 33,585.82 38,502.20 42,835.99 应收票据及应收账款9,613.98 10,516.60 7,508.98 11,768.85 9,678.88 营业成本27,459.92 26,394.58 27,862.36 31,732.42 34,996.38 预付账款3,336.39 953.68 3,983.75 1,903.57 4,224.00 营业税金及附加128.11 91.59 100.76 130.91 145.64 存货4,505.33 4,687.22 5,675.93 5,560.85 7,330.93 营业费用1,065.88 1,187.27 1,242.68 1,463.08 1,584.93 其他1,393.01 3,090.76 1,950.31 2,748.23 2,332.61 管理费用919.80 1,018.98 1,175.50 1,347.58 1,499.26 流动资产合计23,902.95 26,418.90 23,398.55 29,765.53 30,683.23 研发费用960.30 1,067.01 1,209.09 1,386.08 1,542.10 长期股权投资1,320.85 1,283.58 1,283.58 1,283.58 1,283.58 财务费用504.09 777.09 555.41 509.62 490.19 固定资产5,774.53 7,706.62 8,053.18 8,142.59 8,064.71 资产减值损失175.41 (147.61) 100.00 150.00 150.00 在建工程1,879.74 1,611.82 1,003.09 649.86 419.91 公允价值变动收益(1.40) (0.95) (3.59) (20.04) 0.01 无形资产1,452.83 1,936.10 1,693.62 1,451.14 1,208.66 投资净收益107.62 184.35 100.00 100.00 100.00 其他2,025.38 2,278.73 1,695.66 1,865.74 1,926.81 其他(502.05) (363.30) (192.81) (159.93) (200.01) 非流动资产合计12,453.33 14,816.84 13,729.13 13,392.91 12,903.68 营业利润3,048.07 1,551.02 1,436.44 1,862.47 2,527.50 资产总计36,362.66 41,247.48 37,136.09 43,167.28 43,596.57 营业外收入10.11 101.43 20.00 30.00 30.00 短期借款8,942.29 8,790.61 6,000.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 营业外支出14.97 59.91 28.51 34.46 40.96 应付票据及应付账款8,067.67 8,182.76 6,531.86 10,923.55 8,836.25 利润总额3,043.21 1,592.55 1,427.93 1,858.01 2,516.54 其他3,695.69 3,302.14 3,651.50 3,876.91 4,136.08 所得税395.85 253.02 214.19 278.70 377.48 流动负债合计20,705.65 20,275.52 16,183.36 20,800.47 18,972.33 净利润2,647.37 1,339.53 1,213.74 1,579.31 2,139.06 长期借款1,340.41 2,235.94 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 少数股东损益115.78 (22.59) 54.62 37.83 37.14 应付债券561.92 2,016.95 1,357.55 1,312.14 1,562.21 归属于母公司净利润2,531.59 1,362.12 1,159.12 1,541.47 2,101.92 其他253.57 254.48 259.28 255.77 256.51 每股收益（元） 1.07 0.58 0.49 0.65 0.89 非流动负债合计2,155.90 4,507.37 2,616.82 2,567.91 2,818.72

负债合计22,861.55 24,782.88 18,800.18 23,368.38 21,791.06

少数股东权益1,080.44 2,793.00 2,847.62 2,885.45 2,922.59 主要财务比率2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 股本1,903.69 1,903.69 2,362.19 2,362.19 2,362.19 成长能力

资本公积3,195.89 3,415.10 3,415.10 3,415.10 3,415.10 营业收入30.50% -6.22% 5.75% 14.64% 11.26% 留存收益10,645.37 11,966.98 13,126.10 14,551.26 16,520.73 营业利润21.27% -49.11% -7.39% 29.66% 35.71% 其他(3,324.28) (3,614.17) (3,415.10) (3,415.10) (3,415.10) 归属于母公司净利润20.05% -46.19% -14.90% 32.99% 36.36% 股东权益合计13,501.12 16,464.60 18,335.91 19,798.90 21,805.51 获利能力

负债和股东权益总计36,362.66 41,247.48 37,136.09 43,167.28 43,596.57 毛利率18.92% 16.89% 17.04% 17.58% 18.30%

净利率7.48% 4.29% 3.45% 4.00% 4.91%

ROE 20.38% 9.96% 7.48% 9.11% 11.13%

ROIC 20.03% 10.67% 8.22% 9.48% 13.46% 现金流量表(百万元) 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 偿债能力

净利润2,647.37 1,339.53 1,159.12 1,541.47 2,101.92 资产负债率62.87% 60.08% 50.63% 54.13% 49.98% 折旧摊销624.87 927.18 564.64 586.30 600.30 净负债率46.76% 38.12% 24.47% 4.92% 8.55% 财务费用635.18 762.52 555.41 509.62 490.19 流动比率 1.15 1.30 1.45 1.43 1.62 投资损失(107.62) (184.35) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) 速动比率0.94 1.07 1.10 1.16 1.23 营运资金变动(2,014.12) (2,900.00) (592.96) 1,524.67 (3,447.54) 营运能力

其它67.57 1,571.89 51.02 17.80 37.15 应收账款周转率 4.01 3.16 3.73 3.99 3.99 经营活动现金流1,853.25 1,516.77 1,637.23 4,079.87 (317.98) 存货周转率7.21 6.91 6.48 6.85 6.65 资本支出4,197.01 2,921.95 55.20 83.50 49.26 总资产周转率 1.05 0.82 0.86 0.96 0.99 长期投资187.73 (37.27) 0.00 0.00 0.00 每股指标（元）

其他(8,693.65) (7,238.41) (4.58) (23.94) (0.08) 每股收益 1.07 0.58 0.49 0.65 0.89 投资活动现金流(4,308.90) (4,353.73) 50.63 59.57 49.18 每股经营现金流0.78 0.64 0.69 1.73 -0.13 债权融资11,367.60 13,447.67 8,766.60 8,757.54 8,981.75 每股净资产 5.26 5.79 6.56 7.16 7.99 股权融资(164.27) (596.68) 134.04 (477.74) (458.31) 估值比率

其他(8,317.71) (7,507.84) (13,479.55) (8,914.79) (8,921.87) 市盈率13.07 24.30 28.55 21.47 15.74 筹资活动现金流2,885.62 5,343.15 (4,578.91) (635.00) (398.42) 市净率 2.66 2.42 2.14 1.96 1.75 汇率变动影响0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EV/EBITDA 7.95 8.80 15.20 11.91 9.98 现金净增加额429.97 2,506.19 (2,891.05) 3,504.44 (667.22) EV/EBIT 9.09 11.14 19.51 14.86 11.97 资料来源：公司公告，天风证券研究所