欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Green GrowthThe impact of wind energy on jobs and the economyA report by the European Wind Energy Association - April 2012

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Green GrowthThe impact of wind energy on jobs and the economya report by the European Wind Energy Association

Text and analysis: Athanasia Arapogianni, Jacopo Moccia (European Wind Energy Association) Data collection and data analysis: Deloitte Contributing author: Justin Wilkes (European Wind Energy Association) Revision and editing: Sarah Azau (European Wind Energy Association) Design coordination: Raffaella Bianchin (European Wind Energy Association) Cover photo: LM Glasfiber Design: Print: www.artoos.be

EWEA has joined a climate neutral printing programme. It makes choices as to what it prints and how, based on environmental criteria. The CO2 emissions of the printing process are then calculated and compensated by green emission allowances purchased from a sustainable project.

Published in March 2012

ISBN: 978-2-930670-00-3

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

“Wind energy is a pivotal element in the necessary transition to a green growth economy. The way I see it, decarbonisation is a prerequisite to growth. Investments in energy system transformation will drive growth and employment in a wide range of sectors. Every euro spent on the green transition is an investment in European jobs.”Danish Energy and Climate Minister Martin Lidegaard in Wind Directions magazine, April 2012

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Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

ContentExecutive summary .......................................................................................................................4 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 10 2. Current status of wind energy and growth forecasts ......................................................... 12 3. Direct impact of wind energy sector on EU economy ........................................................ 163.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Direct contribution to GDP ......................................................................................................... 17 Wind industry sub-sectors’ contribution to direct GDP ..................................................................... 21 Wind energy sector exports and imports ....................................................................................... 31 Direct impact on employment ....................................................................................................... 34 Tax balance ................................................................................................................................ 37 Avoided fuel costs ....................................................................................................................... 38

4. Indirect impact of the wind energy sector on the EU economy ........................................ 404.1 Indirect contribution to GDP .......

................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Indirect employment .................................................................................................................... 43

5. Overall impact of the wind energy sector on the EU economy ......................................... 445.1 Total impact on GDP .................................................................................................................... 45 5.2 Total employment ........................................................................................................................ 48

6. Economic effort in R&D ........................................................................................................ 50 7. Forecast to 2020 and 2030 ................................................................................................. 547.1 Total contribution to GDP .............................................................................................................. 55 7.2 Employment ................................................................................................................................ 58

8. EU wind energy sector– the global leader .......................................................................... 608.1 Activity of European energy players in non-EU countries .................................................................. 61

9. Annexes .................................................................................................................................. 64Annexe Annexe Annexe Annexe Annexe I. Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 65 II. Calculating the wind energy sector’s direct contribution to GDP .............................................. 66 III. Calculating the wind energy sector’s indirect contribution to GDP ........................................... 69 IV. Activity of European wind energy players in third countries ..................................................... 73 V. Contribution to GDP and employment by MW/MWh ................................................................ 91

Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Photo: Siemenns

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

The wind energy industry: a driver for economic growthThe wind energy industry is a proven recessionbusting industry and investment in the wind power sector should be seen as a way to restore Europe’s economy to health. Putting in place stable legislative frameworks which encourage the building, installing and operating of wind turbines has resulted in economic growth since the financial and economic crisis, and will continue to lead to economic growth. Governments and the European Commission should therefore see wind energy as not only a solution to climate change and a way to improve energy security, but also a way to boost ec

onomic growth and competitiveness. As such, investment in the wind industry should be seen as a strategy to deliver economic growth, and stable legislative frameworks to promote the development of the wind industry should be maintained and enhanced, even in times of austerity. In 2010 the wind energy sector– both directly and indirectly– contributed€32.43 billion (bn) to the EU’s GDP, 0.26% of the EU’s total GDP for that year. The contribution of the wind energy sector is higher than the contribution of the footwear industry (0.21%). Wind energy’s contribution can also be compared to the furniture sector, which contributed 0.99% of EU GDP in 2010, to the civil aviation sector, which contributed 1.5% of EU GDP in 2010, to the automotive industry at 6.5% and to construction at 9.9%. In 2010 the increase in the wind industry’s contribution to GDP, at 4.1%, was twice as high as the growth of GDP itself. Between 2007 and 2010 the wind energy sector increased its contribution to GDP by 33%. The wind industry is growing faster than the EU’s economy as a whole and this will remain the case over the next two decades.

As such the wind industry will continue to be a driver for economic growth over the next twenty years. In 10  years’ time the wind industry’s contribution to GDP will increase almost three-fold, with the sector expected to generate 0.59% of the EU’s GDP whilst having doubled employment. In twenty years’ time the wind industry’s contribution to GDP will increase fivefold to reach€174 bn, almost 1% of total EU GDP, and employment will have increased by a factor of three.

The wind energy industry: a major industrial exporter€8.8 bn worth of products and services were exported by the European wind industry in 2010, up 4.2% on the previous year and up 33% since 2007. In contrast, the sector imported€3.2 bn worth of products and services in 2010, making it a net exporter of€5.7 bn worth of products and services1.

The wind energy industry: contributing taxesTax payments from companies in the wind energy sector amounted to€3.59 bn in 2010, mostly corporate and income taxes but also regional and local taxes, and property taxes. Taxes paid by the wind industry have increased by over 50% since 2007.

The wind energy industry: avoiding fuel costsWind energy displaces electricity generated by fossil fuels, which not only reduces electricity prices and CO2 emissions, but also avoids the cost of buying those fuels. In 2010 avoided fuel costs (for coal, oil, gas, biomass, waste) from wind power production was€5.71 bn. For the 2007 to 2010 period, wind energy avoided fuel costs totalling€20.18 bn.

The wind energy sector: a motor for other European economic sectorsThe wind industry buys and sells products and services from and to other economic sectors. This

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€8.831 billion of exports minus€3.171 billion of imports comes to€5.66 billion, rounded up to€5.7 billion.

Green Growth– The imp

act of wind energy on jobs and the economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Executive summary

interdependence between sectors means that the wind industry is a driving force for many other industries– including metals, electric and electronic equipment, IT, construction, transport, and financial services. As a result the growing wind industry has helped other industrial and economic sectors weather the economic crisis.

offshore, as well as increased R&D.

Binding 2030 renewable energy targetEuropean leadership of the wind industry is a result of successful European policy frameworks for renewables, centred on renewable energy targets. These were initiated with the 1997 European Commission White Paper on Renewable Sources of Energy and followed up with legislation and targets for 2010 and 2020. EWEA believes that the most effective way to maintain and expand Europe’s leadership in wind energy would be a continuation of those policies in the form of a binding 2030 renewable energy target, together with effective national implementation of the existing Renewable Energy Directive.

The wind energy sector: creating jobs in EuropeEmployment in the wind energy sector stood at 238,1542. Between 2007 and 2010, the number of jobs in the sector grew by nearly 30%, whilst EU unemployment rose by 9.6% 3.

The wind energy sector: maintaining global technology leadership through R&DThe wind industry spent more than 5% of its total turnover on research and development (R&D) in 2010. Since 2007, R&D spending has consistently represented over 5% of the sector’s turnover, almost three times higher than the economy-wide average, and well above the EU’s objective of 3% of GDP being invested in R&D. Wind turbine manufacturers commit the most to R&D– around 10% of their total turnover– highlighting how well placed European wind power companies are to take on the challenge emerging from China, the US, India, South Korea and Japan.

EU nancial commitment to R&DThe EU has already made a political commitment to develop renewable energy and to increase public spending for technological R&D. Now it is crucial for the EU to take action and commit to financing the€6 bn 10 year wind energy R&D programme of the European Wind Initiative (under the EU’s SET-Plan). Industry has already committed to contributing 50% of the financing, with research focused on new turbines and components, offshore technology, grid integration, and resource assessment.

The wind energy sector: a global leaderOver 48% of European wind energy companies also work outside the EU, employing some 20,000 EU professionals in non-EU countries. Of the 10 biggest wind turbine manufacturers in the world, four are EU-based. Of the ten biggest wind energy developers in the world, five are EU-based.

Removal of trade and investment barriersThe European Union should take the lead in pursuing an international trade agreement on environmental goods and services (EGSA), focused on renewable energy technologies in orde

r to ensure the removal of all trade barriers, both tariff and non-tariff barriers, including local content requirements. The EU should also give high priority to improving market access for the wind industry in relation to FTA negotiations with the EU’s main trading partners.

Policy recommendationsKey elements of maintaining the growth of the European wind power sector and European leadership of the sector are technology development and policies to support the expansion of a European wind industry, that is, policies to promote the continued development of European markets, both onshore and

Development of electricity infrastructure, system operation and marketsThe European Commission should continue its development of an interconnected European power system. European wind turbine manufacturers have

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The word”jobs” is used in this report refers to”full time equivalents” or”FTEs”– that is, the number of full-time posts the total number of hours worked represents. It may not correspond exactly to the total number of people employed due to some people working part-time. 3 August 2011. Source: Eurostat.

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Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

mastered the technical challenges associated with increasing penetration levels of wind energy by equipping turbines with highly sophisticated grid integration features. Europe is a global leader in R&D on grid infrastructure technologies, including the concept of the offshore super node linking together offshore wind farms, and High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) power transmission projects, such as those being developed and operated by European companies in China and India (although interestingly not yet in Europe).

Ambitious climate targetsAn EU target of 30% domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions by 2020 is crucial to direct investments towards a sector which delivers emissions reductions in Europe. By 2020 wind energy can deliver domestically 31% of the EU’s 20% emissions reduction target, or 20% of a potential 30% emissions reduction target.

KEY FINDINGSKey ndings for 2010: The wind industry contributed€32.43 bn to EU GDP an increase of 33% since 2007,, with the sector generating 0.26% of the EU’s GDP . The wind industry paid€3.59 bn in taxes, an increase of over 50% since 2007. The wind industry avoided€5.71 bn in fuel costs from coal, oil, gas, biomass and waste. The wind energy sector exported€8.8bn worth of products and services, an increase of 33% since 2007. The wind industry directly and indirectly employed 238,154 people in the EU, an increase of 30% since 2007. The wind industry spent over 5% of its turnover in R&D, three times more than the economy-wide average. Over 48% of EU wind energy companies had activities outside of the EU. Key ndings for 2020: The wind industry will contribute€94.5 bn to EU GDP, an almost three-fold increase over the next ten years, with the sector ge

nerating 0.59% of the EU’s GDP: the wind industry will continue to be a driver for economic growth over the next ten years The number of jobs will increase to 520,000 by 2020, a rise of more than 200% over the next 10 years.

Key ndings for 2030: The wind industry will contribute€173 bn to EU GDP generating almost 1% of the EU’s, GDP a five-fold increase over the next 20, years. The number of jobs will increase to 794,079, an increase of 233% over 20 years.

Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Chapter 1: Introduction

Photo: Feindate

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INTRODUCTION T

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Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

The wind power industry has grown considerably over the past 15 years. In 1997, when the European Commission published its White Paper with a target of 40 GW wind power by 2010, there were 4.8 GW of installed wind power capacity in the EU. By the end of 2011 this figure had risen to 94 GW, able to produce 204 TWh of electricity and meet 6.3% of the EU’s total electricity demand. Wind energy makes a significant contribution to the EU’s energy and climate objectives, competitiveness, and energy security. Over the next 20 years, wind energy’s growth will continue. The European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) expects 230 GW of installed capacity in 2020 and 400 GW by 2030. Wind power is gearing up to become the main power technology in the EU. The European Commission, in its Energy Roadmap 20504, expects wind energy to be the key technology by 2050, supplying more electricity than any other technology and meeting between 31.6% and 48.7% of Europe’s electricity production. Consequently, as an industrial sector, the wind industry has an increasingly important role in Europe’s economy, contributing to the creation of value, to gross domestic product (GDP) and job creation, and to the development of other economic sectors5. This report evaluates the impact of the wind energy industry on the European economy between 2007 and the end of 2010. Between September and December 2011, 350 companies working in wind energy in the EU were surveyed by Deloitte. Their impact on Europe’s economy was evaluated by analysing eight indicators. The direct contribution of the sector and its subsectors to the EU’s GDP: wind energy developers, wind turbine manufacturers, manufacturers of dedicated equipment and components, and service providers.

Specification of the wind industry’s main turnover components: internal demand, external demand, total revenues, expenses, employee compensation, business cash flow, and so on. Contribution to sub-sectors. job creation in the different

Indirect contribution to other GDP sectors: metallurgy, electronic equipment providers, financial services, professional services, etc. Indirect contribution to job creation in other economic sectors. Tax balance assessment: corporate tax, local and regional taxes. Impact on ba

lance of trade: exports and imports figures. Comparison of the wind energy sector’s contribution to GDP with that of other economic sectors. Furthermore, based on the projected growth of wind power over the coming 20 years, the report also calculates the impact the sector will have in 2020 and 2030. Direct and indirect contribution to GDP of the sector. Direct and indirect contribution to job creation. Finally, the report evaluates the global importance of the European wind industry. Number of European companies among the worldwide leaders. Volume of exports. Existence of complementary industries and service providers (percentage of supplies from European companies).

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http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/index_en.htm Gross domestic product (GDP) is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced in a country during a time period. GDP is the sum of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation (GCF), and net exports (exports minus imports).

Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Chapter 2: Current status of wind energy and growth forecasts

Photo: Emercon

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CURRENT STATUS OF WIND ENERGY AND GROWTH FORECASTS

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Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

In 2010 installed wind energy capacity increased by 9.3 GW to reach a total of 84.3 GW in the EU, a 12.4% increase on the previous year. The largest share of new capacity was installed in Spain (1,516 MW), followed by Germany (1,493 MW), France (1,086 MW),

United Kingdom (962 MW) and Italy (948 MW). Germany and Spain each installed 16% of the EU’s total new capacity in 2010. Moreover, Germany has 32% and Spain 25% of all installed wind capacity in the EU.

TABLE 2.1 2010 ANNUAL AND CUMULATIVE INSTALLED WIND POWER CAPACITY IN EU MEMBER STATES

Annual (MW) 2010 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom European Union 16 350 198 82 23 364 7 52 1,086 1,493 123 94 118 948 2 63 7 0 32 382 363 448 0 0 1,516 604 962 9,332

Total (MW) 2010 1,011 911 375 82 215 3,798 149 197 5,660 27,214 1,208 295 1,428 5,797 31 154 42 0 2,245 1,107 3,898 462 3 0 20,676 2,163 5,204 84,324

% of total EU capacity 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 6.7% 32.3% 1.4% 0.3% 1.7% 6.9% 0% 0.2% 0% 0% 2.7% 1.3% 4.6% 0.5% 0% 0% 24.5% 2.6% 6.2%

Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Chapter 2: Current status of wind energy and growth forecasts

FIGURE 2.1 INSTALLED WIND POWER CAPACITY IN THE EU FROM 2000 TO 2010 (GW)

90 80 70 60 50 GW 40 30 20 10

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: EWEA

In 2010, 2,965 MW of wind capacity was operational offshore; that is, 3.5% of total installed wind energy capacity. Over the next two decades this share i

s expected to increase to 17.4% in 2020 (40 GW) and 37.5% in 2030 (150 GW).

The 84 GW of installed capacity at end 2010 generates, in an average wind year, 181 TWh of electricity, enough to meet 5.3% of the EU’s gross final electricity consumption. Offshore wind installations at end 2010 produced 10.6 TWh, 5.8% of total wind energy production. In 2020 and 2030 wind energy will generate 581 TWh and 1,153 TWh respectively, 25.5% and 48.7% of which will be produced offshore.

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Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

FIGURE 2.2 TOTAL ON- AND OFFSHORE WIND POWER CAPACITY IN THE EU FROM 2007 TO 2010 AND 2020 AND 2030 FORECASTS (GW)

450 400 350 300 GW 250 200 150 100 50 02007 Onshore Offshore 55.4 1.1 2008 63.2 1.5 2009 73.0 2.1 2010 81.4 2.9 2020 190.0 40.0 2030 250.0 150.0

Source: EWEA

FIGURE 2.3 ON- AND OFFSHORE WIND GENERATION FROM 2007 TO 2010 AND 2020 AND 2030 FORECASTS (TWh)

700 600 500 TWh 400 300 200 100 02007 Onshore Offshore 114.5 3.9 2008 131.2 5.3 2009 151.6 7.4 2010 171.1 10.6 2020 432.7 148.2 2030 591.3 562.4Source: EWEA

Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Chapter 3: Direct impact of wind energy sector on EU economy

Photo: Benjamen Brolet

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DIRECT IMPACT OF WIND ENERGY SECTOR ON EU ECONOMY3.1 Direct contribution to GDP 3.2 Wind industry sub-sectors’ contribution to direct GDP 3.3 Wind energy sector exports and imports 3.4 Direct impact on employment 3.5 Tax balance 3.6 Avoided fuel costs

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Green Growth– The Impact of Wind Energy on Jobs and The Economy

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

3.1 Direct contribution to GDPThe direct contribution of the wind energy sector in the EU’s GDP was€17.61 bn in 2010. The total direct contribution to GDP between 2007 and 2010 was€61.07 bn6.

FIGURE 3.1 EU WIND ENERGY SECTOR DIRECT CONTRIBUTION TO GDP FROM 2007 TO 2010 IN CONSTANT PRICES

20 18€ billion - 2010 constant prices

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 12.44

16.91

17.61

14.11

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Deloitte

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Constant terms, base 2010.

Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Chapter 3: Direct impact of wind energy sector on EU economy

In 2010 the wind energy sector increased its direct contribution to GDP in real terms by 4.1% compared to 2009. Between 2007 and 2010, direct contribution to GDP grew by 41.5% in real terms. This increase took place across the whole wind energy value chain.

In 2010 the industry’s net exports (the difference between exports and imports) were worth€5.66 bn. Total exports reached€8.83 bn. Only 9.9% of total wind energy inputs7 are imported: in 2010 the wind energy industry’s direct total expenditure was€32.10 bn and direct imports€3.17 bn.

TABLE 3.1 WIND ENERGY’S DIRECT CONTRIBUTION TO EU GDP IN CURRENT AND CONSTANT PRICES (BASE 2010)

2007 Direct GDP contribution (billion€)

2008

2009

2010

%%% Constant Current Constant variation Current Constant variation Current Constant variation Cu

rrent prices prices prices previous prices prices previous prices prices previous prices year year year 8.51 3.93 6.60 2.67 12.44 38.69 26.25 8.05 3.72 6.24 2.52 11.77 36.59 24.82 9.23 4.88 7.84 2.96 14.11 43.15 29.04 9% 24% 19% 11% 13% 12% 11% 9.07 4.79 7.70 2.91 13.86 42.38 28.52 11.66 5.25 8.48 3.22 16.91 49.53 32.62 26% 8% 8% 9% 20% 15% 12% 11.36 5.12 8.26 3.14 16.48 48.27 31.79 11.95 5.66 8.83 3.17 17.61 49.71 32.10 3% 8% 4% -2% 4% 0% -2% 11.95 5.66 8.83 3.17 17.61 49.71 32.10

Internal demand Wind industry net exports Exports Imports Expenditure approach Total income Total expenditure Added value approach Compensation of employees Gross fixed capital consumption Net operating surplus and mixed income Income approach

12.44

11.77

14.11

13%

13.86

16.91

20%

16.48

17.61

4%

17.61

4.41

4.18

4.94

12%

4.85

5.74

16%

5.59

5.89

3%

5.89

3.73

3.52

4.04

8%

3.96

4.71

17%

4.59

5.17

10%

5.17

4.30

4.07

5.13

19%

5.04

6.46

26%

6.30

6.56

1%

6.56

12.44

11.77

14.11

13%

13.86

16.91

20%

16.48

17.61

4%

17.61

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”Inputs” refers to resources such as people, raw materials, energy, information, or finance that are put into a system to obtain a desired output.

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Green Growth– The Impact of Wind Energy on Jobs and The Economy

欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

FIGURE 3.2 GROWTH OF WIND ENERGY SECTOR DIRECT CONTRIBUTION TO EU GDP

25 20Annual growth (%)

19.8% 15 10 5 4.1% 02008 2009 2010

13.4%

Source: Deloitte

FIGURE 3.3 WIND ENERGY SECTOR’S SHARE OF OVERALL EU GDP

0.16 0.14 0.12 Annual growth (%) 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 02007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Deloitte

0.141% 0.132% 0.111% 0.094%

In 2010, the wind industry’s direct contribution to GDP was more than 0.14% of the EU’s total GDP, while in 2007 it was less than 0.1%. The growth of the wind industry’s contribution to the EU’s GDP is greater, over the four year period from 2007 to 2010, than the overall growth of the EU’s

GDP. The sector, thus, made an important economic contribution to the EU’s GDP during this period of slow growth (including a year of economic recession): in 2010 the increase in wind industry’s contribution to GDP, at 4.1%, was twice as high as the growth of GDP itself.

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Sources of information: International Monetary Fund for GDP, European Central Bank for exchange rates for countries that are not part of the Eurozone.

Green Growth– The Impact of Wind Energy on Jobs and The Economy

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欧洲风能协会 《全球风能展望2030》报告

Chapter 3: Direct impact of wind energy sector on EU economy

FIGURE 3.4 WIND ENERGY’S DIRECT CONTRIBUTION TO EU GDP AND EU GDP GROWTH

25% 20% 15%

19,8%

13,4%10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

0,5% 2008 2009 - 4,3%

4,1% 1,9% 2010

EU27 GDP

EU27 Wind Energy contribution to GDPSource: Deloitte

Due to Europe’s move towards a fully decarbonised power system by 2050, the EU’s 2020 20% renewable energy target and discussions on 2030 renewable energy targets, the wind industry should continue to increase its contribution to the EU’s GDP over the coming

decades.

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Green Growth– The impact of wind energy on jobs and the economy