The economist 09-4-24(3)

经济学人

there is still a danger that the American banking system as a whole is nearly insolvent. And if the stress tests are rigorous, they could show that

insolvency is indeed some banks’ likely fate: losses may well eat up much of the system’s capital.

这次金融危机让人们看到银行不是孤立存在的。有人说如果让银行返还政府救济金，那些没能力偿还的银行将得拿它们的股票和顺应债务去冒险。但不可孤立地看问题-——银行业不能被这个行业的弱者拖了后腿。然而，作为一个整体而言，美国银行业仍有破产的危险。如果压力测试严格的话，破产的确是某些银行的可能面临的命运：破产损失将吞掉银行业好些资金。

The slim margin for error means confidence could still evaporate, with even good banks dragged down by counterparty risk. The government says banks that fail the stress tests must raise capital within six months (from the state if necessary) and sell toxic assets. The tests must not be fudged. Providing that the six-month deadline is a firm one, forcing Goldman and others to retain their unwanted funds till then seems fair. But that is long enough. Meanwhile, the politicians should stop changing the rules about pay and bonuses. 细微的误差率也可能意味着信心的消失，因为即使实力雄厚的银行都可能被交易对手风险拖垮。政府称，如果银行未能通过压力测试，将必须在6个月内筹集资金（有必要的话通过国家筹集）和出售不良资产。测试不得掺假。如果6个月期限确定的话，要求高盛及其他银行保留其空闲资金至那时看起来似乎公平。但是，六个月的时间够长了。与此同时，政界人士应停止对工资和奖金规定变来变去