半导体行业的发展趋势 2010 普华永道(10)

中国半导体行业历史及现状

Summary

10 A change of pace for the semiconductor industry? A Summary 1 The main results – an overview The semiconductor industry reported constant growth from the time it came into being around 40 years ago until the current economic crisis began. The industry was able to cope well with short-term corrections, such as the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001, but the current crisis brought major problems. For 2009, we expect to see a decline in revenue of about 20% from the previous year. But the industry will probably soon overcome these problems: for 2010, we anticipate considerable growth and expect that worldwide sales in 2011will roughly match the level of 2008, and grow further in 2012. Annual average growth is expected to be more than 10% between 2009 and 2012, in line with figures seen in the past. In this growth, only minor shifts in sales distribution are expected. Applications of data processing will continue to account for the highest percentage of overall sales, followed by consumer electronics and mobile communications. Nor are major changes anticipated in the product mix: logic chips will remain the main segment. They will be followed by microprocessors and microcontrollers, with memory chips in third place. The pace of innovation in the semiconductor industry is high. Moore’s law postulates that the number of transistors that can be placed on a single computer chip doubles every 18 to 24 months, and over four decades the law has held up. And the process of reducing feature size will continue for years to come. However, the limits of the existing technology (CMOS, for complementary metal-oxide semiconductor) are already evident: in order to produce extremely small features in a cost-effective manner while avoiding functional restrictions, new materials and technologies must be brought into play. And the functionalities are becoming more and more important: previously independent modules are increasingly being integrated in individual chips. Moreover, larger wafer diameters promise to permit more efficient chip production in semiconductor manufacturing. The changeover to diameters of 450 mm awaits high levels of investment, and in view of the financial crisis, is probably several years off. We do not expect it before 2012. The need for capital and the high pace of innovation mean that companies are increasingly specialising in individual elements in the value chain – such as fabless companies (those without production facilities) that design chips and foundries that specialise in semiconductor production. Integrated device manufacturers (IDM), which cover the entire value chain, are increasingly adopting a ‘fab-light’ strategy, in which some areas of production are outsourced to foundries. Integrated device manufacturers generate the highest average sales in the sector; fabless companies, because they specialise in product development, report the highest spending on research and development as a percentage of overall sales. The lowest percentage spending on research and development is reported at the foundries, which do not have any chip development operations. Selling and administrative expenses follow a similar pattern: fabless companies report the highest percentage of costs, foundries the lowest. The economic crisis has meant that most semiconductor companies were not able to generate positive results in 2008. This trend will also continue in 2009, despite cost savings and worldwide capacity reductions. We expect to see positive results in 2010 as a result of the growth in sales.