半导体行业的发展趋势 2010 普华永道(18)

中国半导体行业历史及现状

The semiconductor industry

“We are at the crossroads: we either

will see an evolution of today’s

business, or we will see processor-

centric architectures in many

applications such as netbooks and

smartphones.” 18 A change of pace for the semiconductor industry? Which philosophy with respect to architecture will have an edge in the medium term? It is going to be a battle between the SoC and the processor-centric view, and I am not sure who will win. For certain applications, processor-centric architecture may have advantages, such as faster time to market and software flexibility. But the negative aspects are higher costs, higher power consumption, the commoditisation of hardware and the consequent progressive reduction of the role of System OEMs. On the other hand, SoC architecture provides lower power consumption, higher efficiency and is a means of differentiation. A key aspect in this discussion is the software architecture on silicon. The amount of software running on our devices is huge, and people will not be able to redesign their software with each new device. Therefore, basic choices about software architecture will dictate the future of the industry. Which business model wins remains to be seen. And often life is about different shades of grey rather than a straight choice between black and white. What do you view as the key growth areas for the semiconductor industry? We see two major trends. First, data is going mobile. The movement toward netbooks will be as big as the run on mobile phones some years ago. We had voice going mobile years ago, and now we see data going mobile. We are going to see cheap wireless connections, and everything will be interconnected by wireless. The second big trend is the penetration of silicon into all aspects of daily life. The first examples that come to mind are silicon in medical devices, micropayment systems, food chain control and personal identification. Do you expect that the e-mobility trend – the development of electronic cars – will have a big impact on the industry? Of course. But I would not only say e-mobility. Rather, I see ‘going green’ at large as a major trend gaining more and more importance. What are the key drivers for profitability in the industry? First of all, of course, Moore’s law and being on the leading edge of technology. Second, it is definitely the available production capacity and the usual overcapacity/shortage cycles. A third, and at times forgotten one, is product innovation. The first player in the market enjoys good margins, but for followers to attract customers they have to cut prices. When doing business forecasts, such events are often underestimated, as they tend to occur earlier than expected. Of course, as technology becomes increasingly complex and application lifetime is shortened, we may see more single source designs, and therefore some of these dynamics will change. Do you think that Moore’s law will remain the industry standard? And for how long? A long time! Die shrinking is not always pushed by market needs. It is often driven by competitive behaviour. If you look at the foundry side, some players are willing to push the technology as much as they can just to make it harder for others to follow. We are coming to a point where the complexity, the cost of technology, market dimensions and market positioning are determining if consolidation will happen, simply because some players will not be able to compete on that level any more. In other words, as the game gets tougher, market leaders may be tempted to push their technology advantage to the point where they can marginalise their competitors.