半导体行业的发展趋势 2010 普华永道(20)

中国半导体行业历史及现状

The semiconductor industry

Peter Wennink, CFO

ASML Holding N.V.

“2010 will be a transition year for the

semiconductor industry, while we

might observe full recovery in 2011

and 2012. That is the kind of time

period you have to think of.”

20 A change of pace for the semiconductor industry? than their production costs. This was due not only to the excess capacities which had built up, but also to state subsidies, which, nowadays, are necessary to keep the manufacturers in business. Japan, for instance, has intervened at Elpida; Taiwan is assessing the possibility of consolidating several chip manu-facturers into one large Taiwan Memory Corp.; South Korea has again provided considerable aid to Hynix, following its support at the beginning of the decade that enabled Hynix to grow into the second-largest DRAM manufacturer. In these Asian countries, the semiconductor industry, with its high percentage of direct and indirect jobs, forms an important part of the economy. DRAMs also form a major element within the value chain of computers, sales of which will also increase. Accordingly, various governments are attempting to retain these key industries. However, these subsidies counteract the reduction of worldwide capacities that was initiated by market mechanisms through price erosion. Accordingly, the situation for DRAMs may not improve in the foreseeable future, and more and more state aid will be necessary to keep DRAM manufacturers in business. Worldwide sales of computers and servers, the most important customers for microchips, have also declined appreciably amid the economic crisis. Moreover, particularly in consumer business, signs are evident of a considerable shift in sales in the direction of smaller, less expensive computers such as netbooks. This is reflected in lower average sales revenues and has had a negative impact on the market for microprocessors. Logic semiconductors and analogue semiconductors also have to contend with lower sales volumes. However, this is less likely to produce lower prices than, for instance, as is the case with DRAMs, because the products are not traded on spot markets. Nevertheless, if customers are aware of their increased power in terms of prices, they are likely able to force through lower supplier prices. The following chapter considers the positioning of the companies in the various semiconductor segments.

When do you expect the current crisis in the semiconductor industry to end? Historically, the trend line in the semiconductor industry has been 8 to 9% unit growth over the last 20 years. Without doubt, we are currently lower than the trend line, but the industry is rebounding from the bottom. After stopping production and selling inventory, we have seen an increase in sales of some major electronic products, like PCs. Restocking of inventory is taking place, and semiconductor companies are able to report better than expected earnings. Additionally, the important and necessary investments in technology transitions which were on hold for about nine months are resuming again. But for demand to gain historical growth rates, we need to see some economic recovery. The year 2010 will be a transition year for the semiconductor industry, while we might observe full recovery in 2011 or 2012. That is the kind of time period you have to think of. You mentioned the important investments in technology transitions. When do you think the technological transition to 45 nanometres is going to happen? It is happening this year. The transition to the advanced 45 nm will come first in logic. At this stage, the leading foundries are ramping up production of the 45 nm process, and the others will follow next year. In DRAM, the full transition to 50 nm started in the second half of 2009 and is continuing. The technological leaders in the DRAM industry are even going to pilot production of 40 nm by the end of the year.