半导体行业的发展趋势 2010 普华永道(21)

中国半导体行业历史及现状

A change of pace for the semiconductor industry?

And will there also be a transition to 450 mm wafers?

The transition to a bigger wafer is driven by cost. The most effective way to reduce cost is

by applying Moore’s law, which describes the regular trend to shrink the size of transistor

on a chip. There are discussions about increasing the size of wafers, but a major issue is

the big investment required by the equipment industry for the development of 450 mm

tools. Without the commitment from the customer base, the equipment makers will not

foster the transition to 450 mm wafers.

Do you think market consolidation will play a bigger role in the future? To what extent will

this have an impact on your business?

We are already seeing market consolidation. For example, in the flash business there are

effectively only four players left, with two of them having close to 80% market share.

Market consolidation in the semiconductor industry is an inevitable trend which actually

started at the end of the last decade and will continue. The main driver for consolidation is

the need for economies of scale. R&D costs are ever-increasing, and only by achieving

production economies of scale can firms cover their R&D expenses. We saw a lot of logic

producers that admitted they did not have enough market share to fill one of the huge

300 mm fabs, and eventually they consolidated. The need for economies of scale also

explains the emergence of many joint-venture structures. The impact on our business is in

principle the same. We see that the technology requirements and R&D expenses are

continually increasing and that the drive for scale gains in importance. I think we will see

more consolidation in the future.

We talked about the developments in the market, but these days, many companies are

concerned about access to capital markets as well. What are your medium- to long-term

expectations concerning access to capital, especially for risky businesses like semiconductors?

In recent years, money has never been that cheap and I think clearly that will not be the

case in the future. Access to capital will still be there. In fact, profitable companies will

always have access to capital and will be able to refinance. Consequently, all elements

which drive profitability, such as achieving economies of scale, are of major importance for

the semiconductor industry. In the second quarter of 2009 the capital markets opened up

a bit, and our customers were able to finance transactions. So I think access to capital will

be there, but it will be for a selective group and it will more expensive than in the past.

Are companies currently more focused on liquidity management than they were in the

recent years? How does that affect you when your customers are focusing more on

liquidity and working capital management?

Without doubt, liquidity management has become an important issue. In times of the credit

crises when credit lines are limited, companies focus on cash and usually find it in their

working capital and in their fixed assets. The semiconductor business is very capital

intensive, and liquidity is everything. Capital markets opened up a bit, which eased the

situation, but liquidity management is still of great concern. Our customers are demanding

more favourable payment terms and are tightening their capital expenditures. That will

remain the case until there is a more relaxed financial situation in the industry.

Do you expect that financial investors such as private equity firms will play an increasing

role in the future, because they have access to capital and might find relatively cheap

companies in the market?

Companies might be relatively cheap, but you always have to ask yourself why they are

cheap. But, in general, I think the current appetite of private equity firms is not as high as it

used to be. Money was very cheap, which it isn’t today. Banks and investors are not

willing to lend their money at the same cost as one or two years ago. Consequently,

private equity firms have to put more of their own stake into the venture. We all know that

the semiconductor industry is a very cyclical business, and I think that an element of

conservative financing is strongly required.

What about R&D spending in the current crisis? Do you expect that R&D spending will be

cut in the next few years?

R&D is absolutely essential in the semiconductor industry. Every transition drives down

costs eventually. It is just a matter of time until companies which are not improving their

technology are driven out of the market. In this sense, R&D is almost a prerequisite for

existence. I don’t think that the willingness to spend on R&D is going down, but R&D

spending will be limited to those companies which can actually afford it. R&D spending is

not going to be lower as a result of less access to capital. Instead, the industry will use the

R&D budgets more efficiently by consolidating and cooperating. The semiconductor industry

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