j.1467-9701.2009.01184.x[1](13)

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

32JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

TherelianceonprimaryandtraditionalmanufacturedexportspossiblymakesIndonesianexportsmoresensitivetoRER.

Thecoef cientonmanufacturingexportvolumewithrespecttochangesinRERinKorea,SingaporeandTaipei,China,areallrelativelylowinboththeshortandlongrun.Inthelongrun,RERcoef cientcorrespondingtoSITC7intheseeconomiesisstatisticallyinsigni cant.Intheshortrun,itisstatisticallyinsigni cantinthecaseofKoreaandTaipei,China,whileitisaround0.5inSingapore,butitseffectwouldtakethelagoftwoquarters.Inadditiontothehighdegreetowhichpartsandcomponentsarerepresentedintheexportbasket,RERcoef cientswillalsobein uencedbythetechnologicalsophisticationandcomplexityofexports.Moreadvancedandsophisticatedproductsmayofferfeweropportunitiesforsubstitution,resultinginthelowerresponseofexportstochangeinRER.

InMalaysiaandThailand,thelong-runRERcoef cientsoftotalexportsarecomparativelyhigh.Thismayre ectamorediversi edexportstructure.Despiteexhibitingadecliningtrend,theshareofnon-manufacturingproductsinbotheconomiesin2000–05stillamountstomorethan20percentoftotalexports,comparedtolessthan10percentintheothereconomies,exceptIndonesia.ThepatternoftheRERcoef cientsintheshortruninthesecountriesprovidesastrikingresemblancetotheirlong-runRERcoef cients,butwithlowermagnitudes.Notethatthehighcoef cientcorrespondingtototalmerchandiseexportsinKorea,butrelativelylowvalueofcoef cientcorrespondingtomanufacturingexports,re ectthatprimaryproductstendtorespondnoticeablytochangesinrelativeprices.WorlddemandisimportantindeterminingexportperformanceintheseeightEastandSoutheastAsiancountries.Inparticular,intheshortrun,itisstatistic-allysigni cantatthe1percentlevelinallcountries.Inthelongrun,itbecomesstatisticallysigni cantonlyinthePRC,KoreaandThailand.Inthesecountries,theresponsivenessofexportstoexternaldemandisthehighestforSITC7whileitisthelowestfortotalexports,withmanufacturingexportscominginbetween.Thestatisticalinsigni canceofworlddemandcorrespondingtoSITC7inthePRCinthelongruncouldbebecausethePRC’sownexportsarelargelyin nalassembledgoods,especiallylabour-intensivemanufacturedproductssuchasclothingandfootwear10sothatchangesintradingpartners’demandtendtoaffectthePRC’s nalassemblyexportsmorethanitspartsandcomponentsexports.However,these ndingsaddweighttotheobservationthatnewemergingpatternsofintra-regionaltradedonotnecessarilyindicateaweakeningofinte-grationwithexternalmarketsoutsidedevelopingAsia.

10

Inaddition,thePRC’slabour-intensivemanufacturedproducts gureprominentlyintheworldmarket.ClothingandfootwearfromthePRCaccountedformorethan20percentand25percent,respectively,ofglobalexports,during2000–05,comparedwithlessthan5percentfortheothereconomiesintheregion.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009