SWAT模型在青海湖布哈河流域径流变化成因分析中(5)

WAT模型在青海湖布哈河流域径流变化成因分析中的应用

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ApplicationofSWATmodeltoanalysisofrunoffvariation

ofBuhaRiverBasinofQinghaiLake

LIUJi2feng1,HUOShi2qing1,LIShi2jie2,DUYu3

(rmationCenterofHydrologyBureau,YellowRiverWaterConservancyCommission,Zhengzhou450004,China;

2.NanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnology

,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Nanjing210008,China;

3.SupervisionCompanyofHeavyIndustryConstruction,Guangzhou510004,China)

Abstract:Thestudywasperformedtoinvestigatetheinfluencesofclimatevariationandhumanactivitiesonthehydrologicalprocessoftheriverbasin.WiththedistributedhydrologicalmodelSWAT,runoffvariationoftheBuhaRiverofthepastdecadeswassimulated.Fromtheanalysis,itisconcludedthattheclimatevariationisthemaincauseofrunoffdecreaseintheriverbasinfromthe1980stothe1990s.Then,therunoffvariationoftheBuhaRiverwaspredictedaccordingtothevariationtrendofclimatecondition.Theresultshowsthattherunoffwillpossiblyincreaseinthefollowing30years,whichwillleadtothedecelerationoftheloweringoreventotheriseofthewaterlevelofQinghaiLake.

Keywords:SWAT;runoffvariation;climatechange;landuse;hydrologicalsimulation;BuhaRiverBasin;QinghaiLake