麦肯锡中国城市可持续发展报告(11)

5

The Urban China Initiative

Index selection

We used the same index system framework for USI 2013, as we used for USI 2011. The

evaluation was done by breaking down the issues into four categories for analysis: economy, society, resources and the environment, (including cleanliness and the built environment). We selected 23 indicators for the index to quantify the level of sustainability (Figure 2). This took into consideration the 17 indicators in USI 2011 and the 34 indicators proposed in the China Urbanization Index by UCI and the NDRC in 2012. To bolster the emphasis on quality of life compared to USI 2011, USI 2013 has replaced or added indicators such as per capita disposable income, employment rate, number of doctors per capita, pension and healthcare coverage rates, air quality, water supply coverage, internet access and water usage efficiency.Figure 223 indicators are included in four categories with emphasis on Society and Environment

Category

(weight = 100%)Components (weight within category = 100%)

Employment (25%)

Society(33%)Social welfare(33%)Doctor resource (25%)Education (25%)

Pension (13%)

Healthcare (13%)

Air pollution (11%)

Cleanliness(17%)

Environment(33%)

Built environment(17%)Industrial pollution (11%)Air qualified days (11%)Waste water treatment (11%)Household waste management (5%)Urban density (11%)Mass transit usage (11%)Public green space(11%)

Public water supply (5%)

Internet access (11%)

Economy(17%)Economic development(17%)

Resource utilization(17%)Income level (33%)Reliance on heavy industry (33%)Capacity investment (33%)Energy consumption (33%)Power efficiency(33%)

Water efficiency2(33%)IndicatorsUrban employment rate (%)Bold = indicator not in USI2011Number of doctors per capita (per thousand persons)Middle school students in young population (%)Pension security coverage (%)Health care security coverage (%)Concentration of SO2, NO2, PM10 (mg per cubic meter)Industrial SO2 discharged per unit GDP (tons per bnRMB)Days of air qualified equal or above level II1(%)Wastewater treatment rate (%)Domestic waste treated (%)Persons per square kilometer of urban areaPassengers using public transit (per capita)Area of public green space (%)Public water supply coverage (%)Household access to Internet (%)Disposable income per capitaGDP from service industry (%)Government investment in R&D (per capita)Total energy consumption (SCEper unit GDP)Residential power consumption (kwh per capita)Total water consumption (liters per unit GDP)Resources(17%)

1Air qualified days defined as days qualified equal or above Air Pollution Index level II. There are six levels by API. Level II means air quality is general acceptable to public, except for specially sensitive population.

2Cities are classified by water resource and then are scored within their own group to minimize distortion by natural water resource

SOURCE: McKinsey analysis, UCI

Research methodology

To calculate scores, we standardized all indicators’ dimensions so that they could be added to, or compared with each other. The calculated mean of the year before and after, or the average growth rate of nearby years, was used to fill the data gaps for some years.

In USI 2011, we assigned equal importance to the four sub-categories. In USI 2013 society and environment are given more weight – each is worth 1/3 of the whole – than economic and resources, each of which is worth 1/6 of the whole.

In addition to the analysis of the traditional set of key drivers, USI 2013 made additional breakthroughs in three areas:

Firstly, we focus more on growth analysis than on static level analysis. We not only ranked cities by their current sustainability scores, but also calculated the compound

annual growth rate of each indicator, gave them the same weight as in the original system, and calculated the growth rate of sustainability. As a result, we are able to deduce which cities, albeit at different stages of economic development, grow fastest. Consequently, this allows us to study the drivers of growth.