能源价格对宏观经济的影响_基于可计算一般均衡(11)

2008年第11期

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TheImpactofEnergyPriceIncreasesonMacro-economy:

AnAnalysesbasedonCGEMethod

LinBoqiangandMouDunguo

(ChinaCenterforEnergyEconomicsResearch,XiamenUniversity)

Abstract:Inrecentyears,wehaveseengreatincreaseinenergyprices.TheimpactsofenergypriceincreasesonWesterncountrieseconomydrewgreatattention,andWesternscholarsdidalargenumberofrelatedresearch.However,veryfewresearchesonthesubjectweredoneinChina.Differentstudieshaveshownthatenergypriceshavecontractioneffectsoneconomy.Since1993,Chinabecameanetoilimportedcountry.RecentoilpriceincreaseisthefirsttimeforChinatofacetheoilpriceshock.Coalpriceshavealsokeptrisinginrecentyears.WhatkindsandhowgreatoftheimpactwillcoalandoilpriceincreaseshaveonChinaseconomyarehighlyrelatedwiththeChinaseconomiccharacteristics,andbothareimportquestionsneedgreatresearchefforttosupportmacro-policydecisionmaking.Thispaperstudiesthesequestions,particularlycomparisonsofcoalandoilpriceimpactsusingcomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)method,andthereforefillstheresearchgap.Theresultsshowthattheimpactsofenergypriceincreasehavecontractioneffects,andthelevelsofcontractionaredifferentsignificantlyacrossindustries.Thiswillnotonlyaffectstheeconomicgrowthbutalsoimpeltheindustrialstructurechange.FormostindustriesinChina,thecontractioneffectsofcoalare2to3timesthatofoilforthesamepriceincrease,andconclusionholdsevenforthelessenergy-intensiveserviceindustries.TheimpactdifferencesofcoalandoilareinlinewiththeobservedenergyconsumptionstructureofChina,whichcoaltakes70%andoiltakes20%oftheprimaryenergyconsumption.Thispaperputforwardsomesuggestionsonhowtodealwiththeenergypriceincreases.

KeyWords:OilPrice;CoalPrice;ContractionEffect;IndustrialStructureJELClassification:D580,Q430

(责任编辑:晓　明)(校对:晓　鸥)