银行信用风险度量理论资料
Abstract
CreditriskmeasurementiSthebaseofcreditmanagement.whichiS
thekemelofbankmanagement.Becauseofalargeamountofbadpropertyinbankandthecompetitionwithforeignbanks,theimprovementofcreditriskmeasurementlevelbecometheimportantprojectfordomesticbanks.
Withtheprogressofscienceandtechnologyandtherapidchangeof
internationaleconomicenvironment,creditriskhasbecomemoreandmorecomplex,attractingmoreandmorefocusfrommanycountriesaroundtheworld.Whenmuchresearcheffortwaspaidfortheresearchofcreditrisk,manynewmodelsandmethodshavebeendevelopedandputintopractice.ThereforeitisanimportanttaskforChina’SbankingtotaketheadvancedtechnologyofcreditriskmeasurementfromothercountriesfbrreferenceandsetuDmodelsandmethodssuitableforChina.Withtheabovebackground,thispaperdecidedtochoosethecreditriskmeasurementofcommercialbanksasitsresearchsubject.
Thepaperreviewedtheliteratureaboutmethodsandarticlesrelative
tocreditriskmeasurement.Thentheauthorchoosesamplesfromthelistedcompanieswhicharecustomersofbanks,andadoptedanempiricalapproachbyusingtheKMVmodelandLOGISTICmodel.Halfyearbeforethedefaultwasfound,thedefaultprobabilityhashighrelevancewithassetsolvencyandreceivableturnover,profitearningcapabilityandcashflow.Highdiscriminateratiowasachievedinthemodels’actualtesting.Thediscriminateratioreached92.3%and91,7%respectivelywhentestedusingprevioussampleandnewaddedsample.
Thepapertookanapproachcombiningtheoreticalandempirical
analysis.Somecreativepointsweremadeinsuchareasastheselectionofdefectingsample,theapplicationofKM、,model,andthebuildingoftheindexsystemforLogisticmodel,ect.
Keywords:CreditriskProbabilityofdefault
KMⅣmodelLogisticmodel