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商业银行信用风险度量研究——基于LOGISTIC与KM(6)

发布时间:2021-06-05   来源:未知    
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银行信用风险度量理论资料

Abstract

CreditriskmeasurementiSthebaseofcreditmanagement.whichiS

thekemelofbankmanagement.Becauseofalargeamountofbadpropertyinbankandthecompetitionwithforeignbanks,theimprovementofcreditriskmeasurementlevelbecometheimportantprojectfordomesticbanks.

Withtheprogressofscienceandtechnologyandtherapidchangeof

internationaleconomicenvironment,creditriskhasbecomemoreandmorecomplex,attractingmoreandmorefocusfrommanycountriesaroundtheworld.Whenmuchresearcheffortwaspaidfortheresearchofcreditrisk,manynewmodelsandmethodshavebeendevelopedandputintopractice.ThereforeitisanimportanttaskforChina’SbankingtotaketheadvancedtechnologyofcreditriskmeasurementfromothercountriesfbrreferenceandsetuDmodelsandmethodssuitableforChina.Withtheabovebackground,thispaperdecidedtochoosethecreditriskmeasurementofcommercialbanksasitsresearchsubject.

Thepaperreviewedtheliteratureaboutmethodsandarticlesrelative

tocreditriskmeasurement.Thentheauthorchoosesamplesfromthelistedcompanieswhicharecustomersofbanks,andadoptedanempiricalapproachbyusingtheKMVmodelandLOGISTICmodel.Halfyearbeforethedefaultwasfound,thedefaultprobabilityhashighrelevancewithassetsolvencyandreceivableturnover,profitearningcapabilityandcashflow.Highdiscriminateratiowasachievedinthemodels’actualtesting.Thediscriminateratioreached92.3%and91,7%respectivelywhentestedusingprevioussampleandnewaddedsample.

Thepapertookanapproachcombiningtheoreticalandempirical

analysis.Somecreativepointsweremadeinsuchareasastheselectionofdefectingsample,theapplicationofKM、,model,andthebuildingoftheindexsystemforLogisticmodel,ect.

Keywords:CreditriskProbabilityofdefault

KMⅣmodelLogisticmodel

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