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9. Relaxed confidence level - 80%
10. Strict confidence level - 95%
Simulations were run with this set of parameters using both the original likelihood equations of Marshall et al. (1998) and the corrected likelihood equations of Kalinowski et al. (2007). Following this paternity analysis of the 875 calves was carried out, again using both the original and corrected likelihood equations.
The table below shows the percentage of paternity tests resolved for offspring with sampled mothers and offspring with unsampled mothers at two confidence levels, relaxed and strict. The two rows of data show the results from analysis using the original and corrected likelihood equations respectively. In each case the observed percentage is followed in brackets by the expected percentage predicted by the simulation.
Bear in mind that since only 65% of candidate fathers were sampled, the success of paternity analysis is unlikely to significantly exceed 65%, although "false positive" assignments, particularly at relaxed confidence, may push the percentage a little higher.
The table illustrates the following points:
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